Does Manifold think that the Trump administration used a language model to set tariff rates?

100Ṁ609

Apr 11

25%

chance

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Resolves YES if by a poll of non-traders, a majority of Manifold users express the belief that the Trump administration used a LLM like ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, etc. to create tariff rates or a tariff formula. Resolves NO if the poll is tied or in favor of the idea that the Trump administration came up with the formula or rates on their own.

Traders who bet in this market are excluded from the poll for resolution purposes.

Relevant background: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-tariffs-chatgpt-2055203

Did Trump admin use ChatGPT to allocate tariffs? What we know

Critics said that AIs such as ChatGPT gave the same technique used by the White House when asked to design a global tariff policy.

I have also personally confirmed that ChatGPT is liable to give this answer if prompted, roughly half of the time.

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bought Ṁ370 NO

Pretty sure it's coincidental

@birdbatch That's a bold bet considering the market is about what other people think

@Balasar I'm aware but I figured:

1) I have decent confidence that most non-trading Manifold users will agree with me
2) Even if I'm wrong about that, I can easily tell myself "oh, they were just ignorant" and still feel perfectly fine with myself if I lose my stake here

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