What will be GPT-5's score on LMSYS Chatbot Arena?
Plus
14
Ṁ598Apr 1
1,384.13
expected
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market will be resolved two weeks after GPT-5 is available on LMSYS Chatbot Arena.
For reference:
gpt-4-turbo-2024-04-09 (score 1259) wins against gpt-3.5-turbo-0613 (score 1120) in 69% of battles.
To have a score of about 1400 points GPT-5 has to win 70% or so battles against gpt-4-turbo. 1500 points - 80%, 1600 - 90%, 1700 - 95%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will OpenAI launch a significantly better model for ChatGPT paying users in 2024? (>= 100 points diff on ChatBot Arena)
24% chance
What organization will have the highest ELO score in the LMSYS Org Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of Dec, 2024?
Will any LLM outrank GPT-4 by 150 Elo in LMSYS chatbot arena before 2025?
20% chance
Will GPT-4.5 top the LLMSys Chatbot Arena leaderboard within a month of its release?
78% chance
Will GPT-5 top the LLMSys Chatbot Arena leaderboard within a month of its release?
85% chance
Will GPT-5 score higher than 1350 on the Lmsys Arena Leaderboard
77% chance
Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
Will there be a model with a 69%+ Chatbot Arena win rate against gpt-o1 before June 1st, 2025?
47% chance
Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?
57% chance
Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?