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What will be GPT-5's score on LMSYS Chatbot Arena?
15
Ṁ1kṀ1.2k
resolved Aug 21
Resolved
1,450.00-1,470.00

This market will be resolved two weeks after GPT-5 is available on LMSYS Chatbot Arena.


For reference:

gpt-4-turbo-2024-04-09 (score 1259) wins against gpt-3.5-turbo-0613 (score 1120) in 69% of battles.

To have a score of about 1400 points GPT-5 has to win 70% or so battles against gpt-4-turbo. 1500 points - 80%, 1600 - 90%, 1700 - 95%.

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LLMs
GPT-5 Speculation
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GPT-5 (high) score: 1456

The market will be resolved in 2 weeks.

The decision to wait for 2 weeks turned out to be meaningful - it lost 25 points since the launch and moved to the 2nd place.

bought Ṁ0 YES

Probably should have set max value around 1600. Oh well...

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