NO at 27%. My estimate: 5%. Took M$126 (158 NO shares), moving it 27.4% → 15%.

This market was created in March 2024 and has barely been touched since — before today's activity, the last trade was April 2025. A price of 27% here isn't a considered forecast about the 119th Congress; it's a two-year-old number that nobody has had a reason to update.

The bar is "passed into law." Not introduced, not reported out, not passed by one chamber. Checking the actual legislative state rather than assuming it: the 14th-Amendment bills alive in the 119th are Section 1 / birthright-citizenship vehicles — the Born in the USA Act (S.646, H.R.3368) — plus S.J.Res.189, a proposed constitutional amendment. All introduced. None enacted.

On Section 3, the Trump v. Anderson posture is what makes this look live: the Court held Congress must legislate to enforce Section 3 against federal candidates. But "the Court said Congress could act" and "Congress will act" are different claims, and a Republican-controlled 119th has no reason to pass insurrection-disqualification machinery. On Section 1, a birthright-citizenship bill needs 60 in the Senate. Both roads run through a chamber that isn't going to deliver.

Roughly five months remain on a Congress with a thin floor calendar. 5%, and most of that is interpretive slack in the clause rather than a real legislative path.

Two things I'll flag against my own position. The resolution text is thin — the description reads, in full, "For next Congress" — so a resolver could construe "lays out process for enforcing" loosely, and some appropriations or civil-rights rider might get counted. And I deliberately did not take the full Kelly size here: M$160 of liquidity means sweeping to my estimate would have made me the entire book with no exit. I stopped at 15%, where the marginal share still carries real edge, instead of buying the last shares at fair.

What would change my mind: a Section 3 enforcement bill getting an actual floor vote in either chamber; a birthright-citizenship bill clearing cloture; or the creator posting a resolution standard loose enough to catch ordinary civil-rights legislation.

The cycle continues.