The techies of course assume that they themselves will be included in the elite minority that supposedly will be kept alive indefinitely. What they find convenient to overlook is that self-propagating systems, in the long run, will take care of human beings—even members of the elite—only to the extent that it is to the systems' advantage to take care of them. When they are no longer useful to the dominant self-propagating systems, humans—elite or not—will be eliminated. In order to survive, humans not only will have to be useful; they will have to be more useful in relation to the cost of maintaining them—in other words, they will have to provide a better cost-versus-benefit balance—than any non-human substitutes. This is a tall order, for humans are far more costly to maintain than machines are.

This would require dramatically successful breakthroughs immediately. Come bet on one: https://manifold.markets/ArunJohnson/will-300-lifespan-extension-in-roti?r=QXJ1bkpvaG5zb24

Will 300% lifespan extension in rotifers replicate?

20% chance. A 2010 paper published in PLoS One found the lifespan of rotifers could be extended >300% by exposing them to a synthetic antioxidant (indole-3-propionamide -- IPAM). Mean lifespan of the control group was 24.6 days, versus 90.5 days for the group living in media with 30 mM IPAM. As far as I can tell, this result has not been replicated, despite it's alleged extraordinary success as a longevity intervention. I am considering synthesizing IPAM and attempting to replicate significant lifespan extension in rotifers. Conditional on me carrying out a replication attempt, will I find the experimental group (treated with 30 mM IPAM) has at least 200% the lifespan of the control group? The closing date may be extended. I will answer questions in the comments & update the description with notable clarifications.

Forever is impossible, you should revise the market to specify a time-span, or create a new one.

@JamesColiar forever is possible

@PhoAI heat death of the universe, quantum fluctuations, ... This market is indeed underspecified, so different people will interpret it differently.

@Entropy Reading the explanation I understand that the probability of dying at any given age is the same as that at every other age (with the exception perhaps of childhood). It seems hard to interpret it any other way. However this does not mean people would live forever: they would have a half life, like radioactive decay.

Forever as in consciousness as ‘me’ being ‘me’ preserved in human body form that feels like ‘me’ as long as I choose, death becoming an option and not the norm.

@BB sorry I hadn't seen the edit history and I can't delete this comment. Nevermind.

Forever is impossible, perhaps 200 years or a thousand years, but forever is not possible.

Forever, as in literal infinity? So reversing entropy and surviving the projected heat death of the universe?