Will the person who is next elected US President for the first time be over 70?
Will the person who is next elected US President for the first time be over 70?
20
1kṀ14352028
30%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will the person who is next elected US President for the first time be over 70?
To resolve the market positive, the new President's 70th birthday should be prior to the day of their election.
Excludes anyone who has ever been (edit 26 aug 2024: elected) president before. Applies regardless of their election date. Resolves NA if no one new is elected US President by 2029.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
How would this resolve under the unlikely scenario that Biden leaves office, Harris is president, but then Harris is "elected for the first time".
Title and description imo can be read differently.
Great question. I have edited the text to bring it in line with the title. thanks for asking before it becomes a substantially live issue.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will a person under the age of 70 be elected US President in 2028?
90% chance
Will someone under 70 be elected US president in 2028?
80% chance
Will a person under the age of 60 be elected US President in 2028?
57% chance
Will the winner of the 2028 presidential election be under the age of 50?
27% chance
Will the US have a president that's less than 50 years old by the end of 2029?
49% chance
What will be the next US presidential election to elect someone in their 50s?
Which US president will be a centenarian?
Will the first female President be under 55?
20% chance
Will the 68th and 70th US Presidents be the same person?
3% chance
Will the first female President be under 50?
23% chance