The Republican administration has asked congress to cut the budget to 4.7 billion. This year the budget was 9 billion.
This market will resolve in 2025, and may resolve early if a budget bill passes and there is no discussion of additional funding bills for the NSF.
Update 2026-01-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated this market will resolve NO. The actual NSF budget for FY 2026 is 8.7 billion, which is below the 8.9 billion threshold. The creator notes that while the NSF website shows 8.9+ billion, this includes 300 million in emergency funds that were appropriated in 2025 and should not count toward the 2026 budget.
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This seems to resolve no; there are 300m in emergency funds that are counted on the website which were appropriated last year, and that Trump refused to spend. Regardless of how that resolves, it really should count as from 2025 imo.
The actual budget is 8.7 billion, which essentially matches the 2025 budget ignoring the emergency funds.
I've found this helpful site: https://www.aip.org/fyi/fy2026-national-science-foundation
Which claims we don't know the passed amount yet, still? What with the shutdown, this might be on the table for change still. House has passed a budget where it is well below the stated funding level, Senate passed something comfortably above.