What will be the most controversial market to resolve in 2024?
What will be the most controversial market to resolve in 2024?
11
395Ṁ636Jan 1
7%
Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?
1.0%
Did COVID-19 come from a labratory?
5%
Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2024?
3%
What logos will be on agency's Billboard 0 in SF Embarcadero BART?
12%
"The names Barack, Michelle, or Obama are mentioned" option of the market "State of the Union Bets"
34%
Will there be a US government shutdown before the end of 2024?
38%Other
Please add more markets that you think will end up being controversial in some way! This could mean a controversial resolution, some sort of foul play occurring, or just a whole bunch of arguing in the comments section.
I will conduct a poll at the end of the year to determine which of the markets was seen as the most controversial. This should go without saying, but don't try to purposefully stir up controversy in any of these markets!
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Just to get ahead of this technicality, if a market closes at the end of 2024 and is resolved shortly after 2025 begins (one week or less) it still counts.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.