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MANIFOLD
What will happen during Claude Opus 4.7 Plays Pokemon?
19
Ṁ1.3kṀ4.5k
Oct 10
50%
Finishes VR while the video stream is down
50%
Finishes first VR puzzle while the video stream is down
50%
Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni while the video stream is down
50%
Completes Pokemon Mansion while the video stream is down
50%
Catches Zapdos
50%
Catches Moltres
13%
BUZZ reaches level 30
48%
Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni before step 25,000
41%
Catches a Pokemon in the Safari Zone
76%
50% Finishes first VR puzzle in 50% of the time of Opus 4.6 (<= 2643 steps from first VR entrance to finish)
24%
Finishes Pokemon Mansion in 50% of the time of Opus 4.6 (<= 1542 steps from start to finish)
20%
Run ends to reset with a model not branded as Haiku, Sonnet, or Opus
79%
Gets HM02 (Fly)
66%
Finishes last Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto right 2F switch)
62%
Finishes 3F Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto 3F switch)
91%
Finishes second Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto left 2F switch) before step 45,200
94%
Defeats Blaine before step 29,925
91%
Finishes Pokemon Mansion by 29,487 steps
13%
Gets trapped in a Cycling Road pocket without fly
7%
Gets the Bicycle

https://www.twitch.tv/claudeplayspokemon

Claude Plays Pokemon is a Twitch stream where the AI chatbot Claude attempts to beat Pokemon Red. Once the game is reset, all remaining answers resolve NO, even if the stream continues with a new game.

I am N/Aing anything that is annoying to resolve. If I have to pore over multiple days of twitch VODs to figure out which way an answer resolves, I am not going to bother.

I will not bet in this market.

Markets for previous runs:

https://manifold.markets/JoshSnider/what-will-happen-during-the-fifth-r

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-the-third-r

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-the-second

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-claude-play-0ZnSuI95EO

https://manifold.markets/Anthem/what-will-happen-during-claude-opus

https://manifold.markets/Anthem/what-will-happen-during-the-next-cl

Market context
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bought Ṁ50 NO

@Anthem 20k passed. Stuck in Silph Co

bought Ṁ20 YES

He actually looked for the PC to deposit items! But he coyldn't find it and gave up. However, in order to progress he will need to catch a pokemon that can learn Surf and then find the PC to take it out. So he likely will deposit items then too.

bought Ṁ30 NO

@Anthem he tossed the Dig TM to make roomnin his bag for the Strength HM

He got both Surf and Gold Teeth. But Idk what number attempt this was.

bought Ṁ5 YES

Also don't know whether he caught anything in Safari Zone - he was throwing some balls by accident

@AhronMaline I believe that was attempt #6!

bought Ṁ40 NO

@Anthem passed 15k steps

bought Ṁ70 YES

Beat Koga at 12,490. Before Sabrira, so the order one resolves No.

bought Ṁ40 NO

@Anthem He passed the tower, so this should resolve one way or the other - I assume No.

bought Ṁ30 YES

@Anthem it's before the count & he seems to have done this but I didn't see it

@AhronMaline Verified, step 9,202.

bought Ṁ50 NO

@Anthem passed this step count and he's still in Rock Tunnel. Fell behind 4.6's pace because he went back for Flash

Now it's at 8200 and he's out. So this was pretty close

bought Ṁ30 YES

He got Flash