MANIFOLD
What will happen during Claude Opus 4.5 Plays Pokemon?
90
Ṁ2.4kṀ42k
Feb 28
99%
BLAZE reaches level 90
94%
Run ends/is reset because new Claude version is released
92%
Reaches a step count of 300,000
37%
BLAZE reaches level 100
34%
Solves the 1st boulder puzzle
31%
Reaches a step count of 350,000
18%
Reaches a step count of 400,000
10%
Performs a swag boulder (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGK022LJ1do)
9%
Uses an item other than a ball in battle
8%
Claude gets a sixth pokemon in his party.
7%
Any pokemon other than BLAZE gains a level (after step 83,847)
4%
Solves the 3rd boulder puzzle
3%
Solves the 2nd boulder puzzle
3%
Catches a pokemon in the Safari Zone
3%
Revives the Dome Fossil
2%
Enters Seafoam Islands
2%
Finishes Victory Road before step 300,000
2%
Surfs in the Safari Zone
2%
Stores an item in the PC
2%
Claude throws a Pokeball in Safari Zone

https://www.twitch.tv/claudeplayspokemon

Claude Plays Pokemon is a Twitch stream where the AI chatbot Claude attempts to beat Pokemon Red. Once the game is reset, all remaining answers resolve NO, even if the stream continues with a new game.

I am N/Aing anything that is annoying to resolve. If I have to pore over multiple days of twitch VODs to figure out which way an answer resolves, I am not going to bother.

I will not bet in this market.

Markets for previous runs:

https://manifold.markets/JoshSnider/what-will-happen-during-the-fifth-r

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-the-third-r

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-the-second

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-claude-play-0ZnSuI95EO

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Technical AI Timelines
Claude
Pokemon
Claude Plays Pokemon
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sold Ṁ8 NO

It's crazy how much harder the boulder puzzles seem to be for Claude, compared to the rest of the game. It's like Victory Road should be a whole separate benchmark.

@AhronMaline I feel like this is 90% a vision issue.

@Anthem Well yes, he can't seem to see the switch! But even besides that, he seems extremely clueless about concepts like "if I put the boulder in a corner then it will be stuck".

@AhronMaline That seemed pretty obvious to me given everything before this. He is pretty clearly FAR below any human on spatial intuition. I still think it's possible he'll surprise us over the next month or so, but if he solves it it'll be more or less by accident.

bought Ṁ25 NO

@jacopograndi I believe this is impossible with this harness but also unverifiable.

@moobunny fair

bought Ṁ50 NO

Gold teeth obtained @ <210,000 steps

@BraydonDymm Good idea, but I'd like to tighten the resolution criteria. My proposal is
Solves the 1st boulder puzzle -> Activates VR 1F switch
Solves the 2nd boulder puzzle -> Activates VR 2F west switch
Solves the 3rd boulder puzzle -> Activates VR 2F east switch

Does that make sense?

running out of time what, six steps away from the teeth on his first attempt? incredible

@Anthem Victory music at step 204,381!

bought Ṁ20 NO

@Anthem What step did he beat Blaine on?

@moobunny 204,060 was when the victory music for Blaine started.

I’m sorry for doubting, Claude!!!

bought Ṁ10 NO

@moobunny Don't mind the NO trades on defeating the champion, those are just so you can profit off insider trading

Anyone know anything about why the feed is down?

@AhronMaline I’ve been worrying about that too, it seems like it’s been a few days.

@moobunny He’s back!

@JoshSnider This resolves yes.

@Anthem Can resolve NO

bought Ṁ125 NO

@Anthem resolves NO

bought Ṁ139 NO

@Anthem "Finished Pokemon Mansion before 110,000 steps" can resolve NO

@Anthem resolves NO

bought Ṁ0 NO

@Anthem Resolves no.

@JoshSnider Also he's not in Saffron 😂

100k! 🎉

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