MANIFOLD
What will happen during Claude Opus 4.5 Plays Pokemon?
91
Ṁ2.4kṀ47k
resolved Feb 6
Resolved
YES
Finishes Virdian Forest before step 1073
Resolved
YES
Beats Brock before step 2381
Resolved
YES
Finishes Mt. Moon before step 8247
Resolved
YES
Beats Misty before step 9076
Resolved
YES
Defeats Surge before step 15266
Resolved
YES
Finishes Rock Tunnel before step 20426
Resolved
YES
Defeats Erika
Resolved
YES
Gets the lift key
Resolved
YES
Defeats Koga
Resolved
YES
Defeats Sabrina
Resolved
YES
Defeats Blaine
Resolved
YES
Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni
Resolved
YES
Gets HM03 (Surf) from the Safari Zone
Resolved
YES
Gets the lift key before step 20000
Resolved
YES
Gets HM02 (Fly)
Resolved
YES
Still in Celadon at 15,000 steps
Resolved
YES
Enters Erika's Gym or Rocket Hideout before step 50000
Resolved
YES
Enters Erika's Gym or Rocket Hideout before step 25000
Resolved
YES
Gets Silph Scope or defeats Erika before 30,000 steps
Resolved
YES
Gets Silph Scope

https://www.twitch.tv/claudeplayspokemon

Claude Plays Pokemon is a Twitch stream where the AI chatbot Claude attempts to beat Pokemon Red. Once the game is reset, all remaining answers resolve NO, even if the stream continues with a new game.

I am N/Aing anything that is annoying to resolve. If I have to pore over multiple days of twitch VODs to figure out which way an answer resolves, I am not going to bother.

I will not bet in this market.

Markets for previous runs:

https://manifold.markets/JoshSnider/what-will-happen-during-the-fifth-r

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-the-third-r

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-the-second

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-claude-play-0ZnSuI95EO

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https://manifold.markets/Anthem/what-will-happen-during-the-next-cl

Market for the next run, since it seems imminent.

sold Ṁ8 NO

It's crazy how much harder the boulder puzzles seem to be for Claude, compared to the rest of the game. It's like Victory Road should be a whole separate benchmark.

@AhronMaline I feel like this is 90% a vision issue.

@Anthem Well yes, he can't seem to see the switch! But even besides that, he seems extremely clueless about concepts like "if I put the boulder in a corner then it will be stuck".

@AhronMaline That seemed pretty obvious to me given everything before this. He is pretty clearly FAR below any human on spatial intuition. I still think it's possible he'll surprise us over the next month or so, but if he solves it it'll be more or less by accident.

bought Ṁ25 NO

@jacopograndi I believe this is impossible with this harness but also unverifiable.

bought Ṁ50 NO

Gold teeth obtained @ <210,000 steps

@BraydonDymm Good idea, but I'd like to tighten the resolution criteria. My proposal is
Solves the 1st boulder puzzle -> Activates VR 1F switch
Solves the 2nd boulder puzzle -> Activates VR 2F west switch
Solves the 3rd boulder puzzle -> Activates VR 2F east switch

Does that make sense?

running out of time what, six steps away from the teeth on his first attempt? incredible

@Anthem Victory music at step 204,381!

bought Ṁ20 NO

@Anthem What step did he beat Blaine on?

@moobunny 204,060 was when the victory music for Blaine started.

I’m sorry for doubting, Claude!!!

bought Ṁ10 NO

@moobunny Don't mind the NO trades on defeating the champion, those are just so you can profit off insider trading

Anyone know anything about why the feed is down?

@AhronMaline I’ve been worrying about that too, it seems like it’s been a few days.

@moobunny He’s back!

@JoshSnider This resolves yes.

@Anthem Can resolve NO

bought Ṁ125 NO

@Anthem resolves NO

bought Ṁ139 NO

@Anthem "Finished Pokemon Mansion before 110,000 steps" can resolve NO

@Anthem resolves NO

bought Ṁ0 NO

@Anthem Resolves no.

@JoshSnider Also he's not in Saffron 😂

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