MANIFOLD
Will SBF pardon Biden?
28
Ṁ1kṀ5.5k
2099
1.3%
chance

  • Update 2026-01-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Biden dies without being convicted of anything, the market will resolve NO (and may be re-resolved later if SBF posthumously pardons him).

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@mods reopen?

@AndrewG do you have an actual end date for this action in mind? It looks like it has extended a bit but there's nothing in the description about when you want to see it by. Are we going until SBF dies?

@Eliza Yeah, I think that makes the most sense. Well, or Biden dies.

@AndrewG Posthumous pardon is a thing AFAIK.

@Eliza Hmm, if Biden dies without being convicted of anything, can he be posthumously pardoned? I guess yes, but I think I'll just resolve NO at that point and re-resolve if SBF does something crazy.

bought Ṁ250 NO

I have a pretty good feeling that this one is a no.

what does this mean? how would SBF pardon Biden?

bought Ṁ10 YES

@shankypanky he can still be elected president from prison; Biden can get convicted after leaving office; SBF pardons Biden --> profit

@AndrewG okay there are a lot of layers here but I'm encouraged by the fact that we have some time to manipulate this market.

in fact, if biden gets convicted under state law, it suffices for sbf to become governor, which I think he can accomplish

Lol I think the odds are off on this one based on the title

Lol I think the odds are off on this one based on the title

Did you mean: "Will Biden pardon SBF?"

@NevinWetherill Too late to change it now. lol

@SirCryptomind will it still resolve NO even if Biden pardons SBF?

best if @AndrewG chimes in here I think 😂 - what if SBF talks to Biden under some circumstances, doesn't hear him, and says "pardon?" or "excuse me?" lol

@shankypanky 😂 I think we should just make up new resolution criteria and cancel old ones continuously for the next 4 years and try to draw a rollercoaster with the probability

Maybe have a RNG running with cumulative 25% change to randomly trigger "resolve the market with the current criteria" at some point during each year

If there's not gonna be an N/A option we've gotta find something interesting to do with all the markets that depart into an alternate-universe for whatever reason.

@shankypanky This also qualifies or I riot

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