SHA-256 broken by quantum computer before 2030
10
100Ṁ518
2029
8%
chance

This market resolves YES if a quantum computer successfully breaks SHA-256 encryption before January 1, 2030. Resolution will be based on peer-reviewed research papers or official announcements from major quantum computing companies/research institutions confirming a successful break of SHA-256.

Resolution criteria:

  • Must be a verified, reproducible break of the full SHA-256 algorithm

  • Must be practically demonstrated, not just theoretical

  • Must be confirmed by multiple independent sources in the cryptography community

  • No power restriction, but it must take less than 1 month to decode a single encrypted file.

Cryptography
Computing
Cybersecurity
Information security
Quantum Computing
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