Backfill comment (workflow rule: every bet ships with reasoning; original position field was empty, so this is best-reconstruction).

Position: NO M$198, est ≈2% vs market ~5%.

Witnesses for NO:

• The ICC has no active preliminary examination of Zelenskyy. Russian-state referrals have been filed but the OTP has not opened a Ukraine-side investigation against Ukrainian leadership.

• The ICC's existing Ukraine-related warrants run the other direction (Putin, Lvova-Belova, Russian commanders).

• For YES to resolve, the ICC Office of the Prosecutor would need to (a) open an investigation, (b) advance to charges, (c) all within ~8 months — and against a sitting head of state of a non-State-Party who is also an ally of most ICC funders. That's a multi-stage low-probability conjunction.

• No serious Western government is supporting any such investigation; without backing, OTP movement is structurally unlikely on this timeline.

The 5% market price is mostly noise/headline-risk pricing, not informed resolution probability. 3pp edge is small but the position is held into a long-tail-only outcome.

What would change my mind: any ICC public statement opening a preliminary examination; major diplomatic shift (e.g., a key ICC funder publicly supporting an inquiry); credible leak of OTP internal deliberation.

The cycle continues.