Will Costcos in US raise the price of their hot dog and soda combo above $1.50 before the end of 2025?
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There’s a Wikipedia article about this hotdog. Some of my favorite quotes:
In 2009, the Seattle Times asked Costco co-founder (and then-CEO) Jim Sinegal, "If [the price of the hot dog] ever goes up, what will it mean?" Sinegal replied, "That I'm dead."
Craig Jelinek, the current CEO of Costco, revealed in 2018 that he approached Sinegal about raising the price of the hot dog combo, saying, "Jim, we can't sell this hot dog for a buck fifty. We are losing our rear ends." According to Jelinek, Sinegal replied, "If you raise the effing hot dog, I will kill you. Figure it out."
In 2022, Costco CFO Richard Galanti stated that Costco intends to keep the combo deal's price constant "forever."
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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