Condition on DPP winning the 2024 election, Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
Condition on DPP winning the 2024 election, Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
7
170Ṁ912027
20%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Does DPP's non-corporation with China increase the chance of invasion?
Resolution follows the same criteria as https://manifold.markets/MarlonK/will-china-attempt-to-invade-taiwan
This market will resolve "yes" if there is a Chinese military attack with the intention to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027.
This question is answered "No" if there is:
no military conflict between the two parties
a limited military conflict without triggering a major war
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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