At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2030 will be trained using 10^27 FLOPs
At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2030 will be trained using 10^27 FLOPs
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Resolves YES if at least one of the most powerfull neural nets publicly known to exist by end of 2030 was trained using at least 10^27 FLOPs. This is ~30 exaFLOP/s years. It does not matter if the compute is distributed, as long as one of the largest models used it. A neural net which uses 10^27 FLOPs but is inferior to other models does not count. Low precision floating point such as fp32, fp16, or fp8 is permitted.
Resolves NO if no such model exists by end of 2030.
If we have no good estimates of training compute usage of top models, resolves N/A.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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