Clarification: A "World War Three" article, which has appeared on the In the News portal, has maintained a starting date of than April 1st or earlier for longer than 7 days, and no talk page disputes about this decision. Update 2026-03-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Vandalism does not count for resolution. The Wikipedia entry must be a legitimate entry that remains on the page for more than a few minutes.

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 7% chance (34 traders, as of Mar 16, 2026).

Will Wikipedia on or before January 1st 2030 list WWIII as having started already on April 1, 2026

Clarification: A "World War Three" article, which has appeared on the In the News portal, has maintained a starting date of than April 1st or earlier for longer than 7 days, and no talk page disputes about this decision.

Update 2026-03-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Vandalism does not count for resolution. The Wikipedia entry must be a legitimate entry that remains on the page for more than a few minutes.

Does this include vandalism?

@AAR you mean of the Wikipedia page? If so, no. It's gotta be a legit entry that's there for more than a few minutes.

@AlexanderTheGreater Vandalism can go unnoticed for much longer than that. I suggest a more robust indicator of consensus to be used.

@Lilemont do you have a suggestion what to watch for? I've never followed vandalism or editing battles on Wikipedia much

@AlexanderTheGreater A "World War Three" article, which has appeared on the In the News portal, has maintained the starting date for longer than 7 days, and no talk page disputes about this decision.

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