Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if either Threads or another platform surpasses X in daily active users (DAUs) by June 30, 2026. Resolution will be determined by comparing official user metrics published by each platform or, if unavailable, the most recent credible third-party data from sources like Similarweb, eMarketer, or DataReportal. The market resolves NO if X maintains higher DAUs than both Threads and all other platforms through the deadline. If no reliable DAU data is available by the resolution date, the market resolves N/A.

Background

X currently has approximately 237.8 million daily active users, though X no longer shares regular usage metrics publicly since becoming a private company. Threads has over 400 million monthly active users and 115.1 million daily active users as of mid-2025. Threads doubled its user base from 200 million to 400 million monthly active users in under a year, from 2024 to 2025. However, Threads users spend an average of 34 minutes per month on the app, compared to X users who spend about five hours and 19 minutes monthly, indicating lower daily engagement despite higher signup numbers.

Considerations

DAU metrics are difficult to verify since X stopped publishing official figures after Musk's acquisition. Estimates vary significantly across sources, with some claiming X has 200-300 million DAUs while others cite higher figures. Threads experienced rapid initial growth followed by a sharp decline in engagement before recovering in 2024-2025, suggesting volatility in user retention. The comparison depends heavily on how each platform defines and reports DAUs, which may differ methodologically.