I will exercise my judgement on what counts as prediction market fraud.
Nov 26, 11:44pm: Eliezer Yudkowsky performs prediction market fraud by the end of 2025 → Eliezer Yudkowsky is found to have performed prediction market fraud by the end of 2025
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Examples of prediction market fraud:
Incorrectly resolving a prediction market
Lying to manipulate a market about him
Paying people real money to buy a certain position on a market
Examples of not prediction market fraud:
Buying shares with an anonymous account
Encouraging people to buy a certain position on a market without monetary reward
@AlanaXiang Thanks, I was not sure if it included legal but shady market manipulation, which I would expect of him - but I'd guess you would not resolve to YES for the kind of things I'd expect here
@AlanaXiang What about:
Doing something in the real world to make a prediction market resolve a certain way.
Betting in a market in a way that seems "manipulatey", such as significantly changing the probability in a "resolves to market" market.
Doing something in the real world to make a market resolve a certain way CAN be fraud, but this is a grey area. Following through on a commitment/personal goals market to make it resolves to YES, for example, is obviously not fraud.
Ok if Eliezer manipulates a Qualy sentence market that’d be hilarious. I don’t think I’d count that sort of thing as prediction market fraud unless it seems particularly egregious AND the market creator deems that it is fraud.
@AlanaXiang and @IsaacKing what is a case where doing something in the real world to make a market resolve a certain way would be fraud? If it is your own market and you explicitly said you wouldn't is the only case I can readily think of where this doesn't seem legit.
