Can you give some examples of what you would and would not consider "prediction market fraud"?

@lu

Examples of prediction market fraud:

• Incorrectly resolving a prediction market

• Lying to manipulate a market about him

• Paying people real money to buy a certain position on a market

Examples of not prediction market fraud:

• Buying shares with an anonymous account

• Encouraging people to buy a certain position on a market without monetary reward

@AlanaXiang Thanks, I was not sure if it included legal but shady market manipulation, which I would expect of him - but I'd guess you would not resolve to YES for the kind of things I'd expect here

@AlanaXiang What about:

• Doing something in the real world to make a prediction market resolve a certain way.

• Betting in a market in a way that seems "manipulatey", such as significantly changing the probability in a "resolves to market" market.

@IsaacKing

Doing something in the real world to make a market resolve a certain way CAN be fraud, but this is a grey area. Following through on a commitment/personal goals market to make it resolves to YES, for example, is obviously not fraud.

Ok if Eliezer manipulates a Qualy sentence market that’d be hilarious. I don’t think I’d count that sort of thing as prediction market fraud unless it seems particularly egregious AND the market creator deems that it is fraud.

@AlanaXiang and @IsaacKing what is a case where doing something in the real world to make a market resolve a certain way would be fraud? If it is your own market and you explicitly said you wouldn't is the only case I can readily think of where this doesn't seem legit.

Eliezer Yudkowsky is found to have performed prediction market fraud by the end of 2025, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition