What will be the P(doom) of these individuals when Manifold thinks ASI is <1y away?

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?

What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2026?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?

Will davidad meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?

What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2025?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?

Will Alex Zhu meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 2%?

Will manifold markets meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?