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In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the USAMO benchmark?
5
Ṁ500Ṁ254
resolved Jul 25
Resolved
2025
100%47%
2025
7%
2026
13%
2027
11%
2028
6%
2029
6%
2030
4%
2031
4%
2032

Background

  1. What is USAMO? The USA Mathematical Olympiad is a two-day proof contest consisting of six problems worth 7 points each (42 points total). It is widely regarded as the hardest high-school math exam in the United States

  2. Why it matters: Unlike short-answer math benchmarks (e.g. GSM8K), USAMO requires multi-page proofs—demanding creativity, rigor, and long-horizon reasoning similar to the International Math Olympiad

  3. Benchmarking platform: The MathArena project publishes uncontaminated, post-release leaderboards for new math competitions, grading each AI solution multiple times and reporting pass@1 style accuracies

State of Play:

  1. DeepSeek-R1-0528: 30.1%

  2. Gemini 2.5 Pro: 24.4%

  3. Human: ≳ 90%

Why this milestone matters

  • Proof-level mastery: 95 % implies solving at least five of six Olympiad proofs matching elite human contestants

  • Economic & scientific spill-overs: Breakthroughs in formal proof and symbolic reasoning could accelerate research automation in STEM.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to the calendar year in which ALL of the following occur:

  1. Score ≥ 95 % on any official USAMO held after the model’s public release.

  2. Verification — the result is confirmed by either

    1. a peer-reviewed paper on arXiv, or

    2. an official MathArena leaderboard entry or an equivalently rigorous public board.

  3. Autonomy — unlimited compute/tools are fine; no hidden human guidance.

Fine print

  • If no qualifying run is verified by Jan 1, 2033, the market resolves to “Not Applicable.”

  • Update 2025-07-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will consider an AI winning a Gold medal at the International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO) as sufficient to meet the resolution criteria for this market. This is because the IMO is considered more difficult than the USAMO.

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USAMO is the preparation test for the IMO. They are both similar exams. American students must pass the USAMO to qualify for the much harder IMO. If AI gets Gold in the IMO we can conclude that it would get gold on the USAMO, because the IMO is more difficult. Both Google and OpenAI have won gold in the IMO.


USAMO = United States of America Mathematical Olympiad

IMO = International Mathematical Olympiad.


Advanced version of Gemini with Deep Think officially achieves gold-medal standard at the International Mathematical Olympiad

https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/advanced-version-of-gemini-with-deep-think-officially-achieves-gold-medal-standard-at-the-international-mathematical-olympiad/

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