@mods the market creator's account has been deleted. Please evaluate market for resolution or clarification given recent events eg. the Turkish assault on Manbij – https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/08/world/middleeast/syria-turkey-kurds.html

@DanielFox9fff I'll close trading while we discuss it, so people are not trading on the volatility of every single word in my comment.

I'm not an expert on this topic, but maybe some other moderator is. It looks like the "by the end of 2024" part is at least pretty safe here. So participants in the market should try to convince me (or some other mod) that this was an:

• "invasion"

• "against Syria"

It seems like it was some kind of force that could probably count as an invasion.

But was it "against Syria", or "against" some other entity that is not "Syria"? Your link was to a paywalled source and the only part I could see on the page said things like "US-backed" and "Kurdish-controlled" so I'm a little doubtful to begin.

If you can put together something compelling, make sure to ping the mods again so someone can review it.

@Eliza here's the relevant Wikipedia article, it seems pretty up to date: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Manbij_offensive

As I understand it this is what happened: The Syrian National Army—a Turkish proxy—attacked the city of Manbij and tried to capture it. They failed due to resistance by the Kurdish forces controlling the city. Manbij is currently a part of the autonomous region of Rojava which doesn't claim independence (yet) from Syria, despite practical autonomy.

I don't think Manbij being a part of Syria is really in dispute at the moment. The term invasion would certainly be applicable to soldiers with weapons trying to take territory. The only potential issue as I see it is whether the SNA is a foreign force.

Their independence from Turkey is in dispute, but they seem to often—including in this case—act in concert with the Turkish armed forces. Also, the areas captured by them are being slowly integrated into Turkey proper, so their intentions are suspect.

I would say this warrants a YES resolution.

Would it be be reasonable to decide a positive resolution requires Turkish Army soldiers on the ground in Syria? Maybe, but that seems overly restrictive. If Turkish proxy forces were to successfully take control of half the country, that territory was quickly connected to the Turkish electrical grid, Turkish was forced to be the language taught in schools, and other acts of sovereignty were carried out by the Turkish government, would that be an invasion? Pretty clearly yes. Turkey effectively exercises sovereignty over all the territory previously captured by the SNA, it's likely they would continue the process with forget captured territory, implying the SNA's loyalty to Turkey.

Thus I think this market ought resolve to YES or clarify the resolution criteria as requiring a successful invasion, not just an invasion attempt.

@mods can this be addressed?

@DanielFox9fff The part I'm still not clear on is if it is actually 'against Syria'. I'm pretty much ready to accept the premise that the SNA forces can count as being 'Turkey' and 'launching a military invasion', but, going from Wikipedia links from your link:

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is a Kurdish-led coalition of U.S.-backed left-wing ethnic militias and rebel groups, and serves as the official military wing of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES; also unofficially known as Rojava).

The Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), also known as Rojava,[a] is a de facto autonomous region in northeastern Syria.

If this is an autonomous region, is the attack against the autonomous region, or 'against Syria'? Has the SNA invaded any other part of Syria that was not an autonomous region? Somewhere the actual government of Syria controlled? Hopefully some other moderator will wade into this.

Just for an example, this page sounds more like 'Syria', where it talks about the city being held by the Syrian government:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Aleppo_(2024)

On 29 November 2024, Syrian opposition group Tahrir al-Sham, along with allied Turkish-backed groups[20][21][22] in the Military Operations Command, entered the Syrian government-held city of Aleppo.

But then later on the page, Turkey denies involvement in that particular one:

 Turkey: Foreign minister Hakan Fidan reiterated that Turkey is not involved in the ongoing conflicts in Aleppo. He also stated that his government is taking the "necessary measures" to avoid another migration crisis at its border.[51]

Is there a different place where Turkey did obviously invade 'against Syria'?

@Eliza I'm not aware of clashes between Turkish troops and the Assad regime.

What makes Syria Syria? Is it the governmental entity representing the country? Or is it the geographical area claimed and administrated under the name "Syria"?

I believe that in this case the latter is a more suitable definition, given the territorial implications of the term "invasion".

If the latter is true I believe the invasion was certainly against Syria. The AANES claims to be part of the greater country of Syria, despite their autonomy and lack of recognition. Sure, their claim to the territory is disputed, but if both sides of the dispute agree that the AANES is a part of Syria then I think it must be.

@DanielFox9fff If the title was "in Syria" I would have resolved it yes days ago.

But "against Syria" makes me think the question is asking about the government/military of Syria not the 'area' of Syria. It's frustrating because this creator ragequit the site and left us with under-specified markets like this.

I'm intentionally leaving this one in the moderation queue because I have been hoping some other moderator will either agree with you and resolve it, or weigh in with another perspective. If I thought it was clear I would have resolved it or reopened the trading.

AANES - Rojava (Syria) All eyes on Manbij! Massive columns of the Turkish led SNA (Joint Forces) have reached Manbij and are being deployed to the frontlines with SDF held Manbij

https://x.com/scharomaroof/status/1863990489864708314

Is this sufficient to resolve this market YES? If not, could you clarify the resolution criteria?