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MANIFOLD
Will I run 5 km every day in November 2026?
18
Ṁ100Ṁ806
Nov 30
29%
chance

I ran 1,000 km last year (by running 5km ~4 times a week), but have dropped to 1–2 runs a week lately. I'm making this market to get my motivation back.

Resolves YES if I run at least 5 km on every calendar day from Nov 1 to Nov 30, 2026 (30 days).


Rules:

- Each day needs a single run of 5 km or more, either outdoors or on my treadmill at home.

- No exceptions for illness, injury, travel or weather

- My runs will be visible on my Strava profile (https://strava.app.link/WbOHeXYYG7b), and I’ll also post a screenshot update here at least once a week. If I miss a day of running, I'll resolve NO right away.


I think there's about a 30% chance I'll succeed. Without this market, I'd put it under 5%. I'm betting YES anyway as motivation. I'll only bet YES and won't sell my position to profit from a NO outcome.

Please don't feel bad about betting NO. It gives me extra motivation 😊

And feel free to ask me questions in the comments below!

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Ṁ1,000
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2 down, 28 to go!

1 day down, 29 to go!!

Today doesn’t count, but at least we’re heading into next month with good vibes!

opened a Ṁ150 YES at 35% order

Here’s my run history over the last few months