Joe Biden's net approval rating fell to a new low of Disapprove +20.2% in the 538 average on July 4th (How Popular Is Joe Biden? | FiveThirtyEight).
Similarly, it fell to a new low of Disapprove +19.3% in the RCP average on July 5th (President Biden Job Approval Ratings and Polls | RealClearPolling)
Will Biden's successor poll worse than this according to either 538 or RCP by October 31st 2028?
If both sources stop publishing before expiry, I will pick a successor source that is widely cited and has as similar a methodology as possible. If the 47th President polls lower according to either RCP or 538, that will be sufficient to resolve "yes". They do not have to poll lower in both sources. Ties do not count as "lower".
Here are the links for Mr. Trump:
Donald Trump : Favorability Polls | FiveThirtyEight
Trump: Favorable/Unfavorable | RealClearPolling
Update 2025-04-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Data Sources:
Data Source Update: Since 538 has stopped publishing, the RCP average will now be the sole source used for resolving this market.
Contingency Plan: If RCP stops publishing, the creator will consider Silver Bulletin as the successor source, with the decision to be made at that time.
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@ScottSupak You're using the President Trump Job Approval poll (https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating) instead of the Trump favorability poll (https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump) that's linked in the description. The one linked in the description has not yet reached 19.4.
However, the one you are using does seem to match the one used for Biden more, and I think it should likely be used instead of the one linked in the description. Hopefully Abu can address this.
Note: 538 has stopped publishing as of present, but RCP has not. The RCP average will be the sole source for this question from now on, unless they stop publishing. If RCP stops publishing, then Silver Bulletin looks like the most likely successor source at this moment, but that determination will not be made until RCP stops publishing.