Will Israel survive the date Khamenei predicted for its destruction?
Will Israel survive the date Khamenei predicted for its destruction?
33
1kṀ29812040
92%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Ali Khamenei predicted that Israel will not survive past 2040. Iran has even launched a countdown clock for Israel's purported destruction. Will Israel survive beyond that date?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Will the Iranian regime survive the date it predicted for Israel's destruction?
20% chance
Will Israel be destroyed before 2040, as predicted by Khamenei?
5% chance
If Ali Khamenei is killed by EOY2025, will Israel claim credit within 3 months?
Will Israel exist two years from now?
96% chance
Will Israel conduct an attack that significantly degrades Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility before January 2026?
15% chance
Will Israel topple the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran by the end of 2025?
13% chance
Will Israel achieve its goals in Iran?
36% chance
Will Israel still exist at the beginning of 2032?
96% chance
Will Iran nuke Israel before the end of 2025?
2% chance
Will Iran hit Israel within 12 months of being attacked by them?
46% chance
Sort by:
@Lemming in the article it says: "The time frame appears to stem from comments made in 2015 by Iran's supreme leader, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who said there would be "nothing" left of Israel by the year 2040." So I assume that if will be change in the name of the state and other main symbols (flag, anthem etc). that will consider as no. OK?
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will the Iranian regime survive the date it predicted for Israel's destruction?
20% chance
Will Israel be destroyed before 2040, as predicted by Khamenei?
5% chance
If Ali Khamenei is killed by EOY2025, will Israel claim credit within 3 months?
Will Israel exist two years from now?
96% chance
Will Israel conduct an attack that significantly degrades Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility before January 2026?
15% chance
Will Israel topple the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran by the end of 2025?
13% chance
Will Israel achieve its goals in Iran?
36% chance
Will Israel still exist at the beginning of 2032?
96% chance
Will Iran nuke Israel before the end of 2025?
2% chance
Will Iran hit Israel within 12 months of being attacked by them?
46% chance