I dont

guys we're only 15 days away

@MaxE You're 15 days away from what? The market closes in 11 days.

@4fa assuming 1 market per day and each one increases by 1 percentage point...

@MaxE Haha, okay.

@MaxE Well, one of those assumptions is already incorrect, the 51% and 52% markets were made two days apart.

@4fa earth days maybe

I hypothesise that the systematic bias for these will be in the direction of 50% (e.g. towards NO here because 52%>50%) because irrational bettors will likely prefer a lower prob of winning bigger (exciting gamble) over a bigger prob of winning smaller (boring hedge), even though they both have the same expected value

@TheAllMemeingEye Yeah I think you will start to see that effect if you move the odds to like 99% or something, not so much when it's so close to 50% still.

What do you hope to gleam from this?

@Velaris It's partly exploratory, but one thing I want to measure is how people react to slightly uneven odds. By running many markets with controlled probabilities and tracking betting patterns, I can estimate how much participants overbet or underbet relative to the true odds. One goal is to quantify systematic biases.

@4fa You won't see the same systematic biases in cases where the true odds are so obviously known though -- it has been done many times before and people will not bet away from the true price by more than a tiny amount unless they are trolling (which will be quickly corrected). See the daily coin flip markets for example.

@A Several people already bet away from the true price in the 51% market by more than a tiny amount. Not sure I would call that trolling rather than simply calling it bad bets.

@4fa Sure, I guess a few people can always mess with the market for whatever inscrutable reasons, but the actual market price is always going to quickly go back to very close to the true price (when it's so obvious).