What will be true about the mystery drones flying over New Jersey (NJ)?
➕
Plus
124
Ṁ44k
Jan 1
94%
Two or more propositions in this market excluding this one will resolve as true/yes
69%
Belong to the US military/gov
66%
At least 1 drone is shot down and recovered
56%
The drones will have mostly vanished by inauguration
54%
Their true nature will remain a mystery
50%
Uses cellular networks to send and receive data
50%
Does not use cellular networks to send and receive data
50%
More drones are flying at night after a Sept 2023 change in FAA regulations, leading to an increase in sightings
50%
Local officials lack equipment sensitive enough to gauge size and relative threat
43%
Belong to a hobbyist
33%
Many of them are hobbyist drones looking for/chasing the "original" drones
32%
Belong to a large company
32%
It's just hysteria/mistaken sightings
31%
Major Mexican TV network runs story implying drones are alien tech
24%
They’re looking for ionizing radiation
17%
Someone will attempt to shoot down a drone and end up injuring themselves or others
7%
It's a new delivery service
7%
Belong to an activist
6%
Belong to a start-up
6%
Belong to a foreign government/agency

In case there is no information for a long period of time, will close in the Summer of 2025. Answers with no new information will be N/A’ed in order to not tie up mana indefinitely.

  • Update 2024-16-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution will be based on official sources

    • Multiple different explanations/sources can be considered true simultaneously

    • Resolution will wait for information to be properly verified and sorted through

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bought Ṁ50 NO

Hey @10thOfficial how do you plan on resolving in the inevitable situation where the "drones" as far as people are talking about them are from multiple sources (say, for example, there were initially some military drones being tested and then people went crazy and mostly saw airplanes and satellites, and then hobbyists started flying their own drones to look for other drones... etc)?

@benshindel would it resolve YES for all situations that seem true, or just for those that account for the original source of drones? or the majority? or just ad hoc as you see fit?

@benshindel When I see something from official sources I will resolve it to the best of my ability. It can be one or more things. The dust needs to settle on this one to make proper decisions, there is a lot to sort through.

opened a Ṁ200 YES at 60% order

This lends a lot of credence to the idea that (at least a few of) the drones were/are Navy or other military drones that were being tested for radioisotope detection / logistics capabilities / __insert_reason_here___:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenpastis/2024/12/16/mystery-drones-over-new-jersey-and-nearby-states-trump-claims-the-military-knows-what-the-sightings-are-updated/

It seems likely that there is some chain of command issues where the military does not want to publicly announce the purpose of the testing, incorrectly assumed that people wouldn't notice/care, and now is trying to damage control by saying stuff like "well we know that it's not an enemy" without giving away details about whatever they were testing. Meanwhile politicians are not permitted to release that kind of information publicly but Trump kind of does what he wants and has been briefed on it and then goes out and says something like "well they know what they are but they're not telling you".

@benshindel also it's not UFO's, lol

It's clearly not just hysteria and mistaken sightings, right?

@nathanwei honestly, from what I’ve seen so far, it looks like a small number of random drones and a whole lot of hysteria 🤣

@nathanwei I think this should resolve as hysteria. Every photo you see if of an airplane or helicopter. The latest photos online aren’t even from New Jersey. Maybe there is a kernel of truth there, but it’s floating in a bathtub worth of hysteria.

bought Ṁ5 YES

Voted aliens because I want to believe

@Shs2s Nice try Diddy

Help an Iranian drone just flew over my head and it had "Spirit" written on it in big letters.

@Predictor resolves yes for 'foreign military' and also 'ghosts'

https://youtu.be/WNc_Xakv00Y?si=7ypOwtDhaY4fbopg

Andrews AFB tower talks to military helicopters about drone activity. Posted by a journalist in DC (his videos are great, can recommend the congress tunnels video). 14 December.

Helicopter cannot keep up.

Personally I think this is a very, very strong case against its just hysteria.

90% US gov and 70% hobbiest?

Hard to see how both can be true (in a way that is a clean resolution).

I think some of this market is going to be very hard to resolve.

The fact that they have bright flashing multicolored lights on them surely eliminates a large set of potential nefarious activity

Illegal drug suppliers delivering packages to local dealers might fit

Could potentially launch the drones from boats out at sea

@MalachiteEagle they are reported to turn lights off. IIRC a police drone persisted one, it went dark and got away.

But I do agree. Personally I think it increases odds of US gov.

bought Ṁ10 YES

A solid attempt toward the "injuring others" resolution:

Trump has weighed in and called for drones to be shot down.

I often like to watch things hit the news and ask myself if something can become partisan / culture war fodder. We're not there yet but it's always entertaining (in the way a car wreck is) to see if it gets shoehorned into one.

@dezzao

“Mystery Drone sightings all over the Country. Can this really be happening without our government’s knowledge. I don’t think so! Let the public know, and now. Otherwise, shoot them down!!! DJT” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113647906240301335

sold Ṁ3 NO
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