MANIFOLD
What will be true about the mystery drones flying over New Jersey (NJ)?
237
Ṁ4.7kṀ100k
Jan 31
97%
Two or more propositions in this market excluding this one will resolve as true/yes
96%
Many of them are hobbyist drones looking for/chasing the "original" drones
95%
The drones will have mostly vanished by inauguration
87%
They record images/video using digital cameras
85%
More drones are flying at night after a Sept 2023 change in FAA regulations, leading to an increase in sightings
81%
It's just hysteria/mistaken sightings
76%
Local officials lack equipment sensitive enough to gauge size and relative threat
74%
Four or more propositions in this market excluding this one will resolve as true/yes
74%
Belong to a hobbyist
41%
Their true nature will remain a mystery
28%
Uses cellular networks to send and receive data
20%
Linked to illegal drug activity
20%
Some drones use advanced technology not available to the public
13%
Belong to a large company
13%
Are investigating Plasmoids
12%
An adversary is trying to force the US's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech
12%
they're designed to look like a commercial jet
12%
Redditor on r/UFOs (post with >= 10k upvotes) claims abduction by drones
12%
Belong to an activist
11%
Major Mexican TV network runs story implying drones are alien tech

In case there is no information for a long period of time, will close in the Summer of 2025. Answers with no new information will be N/A’ed in order to not tie up mana indefinitely.

  • Update 2024-16-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution will be based on official sources

    • Multiple different explanations/sources can be considered true simultaneously

    • Resolution will wait for information to be properly verified and sorted through

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

@10thOfficial Can some or all of these resolve? If not, could you give some indication of what we're waiting on?

@mods Can this resolve? Wikipedia has a pretty good summary: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_drone_sightings

@NathanScott If you have a proposed set of resolutions state them here. If @10thOfficial doesn't respond we will just go with whatever the consensus is.

@Eliza Belonging to the US military/government should resolve No I'd say, although I'm biased because I have mana in it. The ones over military infrastructure were usually private citizen drones or other stuff being mistaken for drones.

@NathanScott @10thOfficial is active so tagging them here - can you please resolve your market that closed yesterday? thanks!

@shankypanky @10thOfficial please resolve

Resolve!!!!

@10thOfficial with the description saying, “no information for a long period of time, will close in the Summer of 2025” how’s this looking?

@10thOfficial thoughts?

@JasonQ This is why Manifold is a failed experiment in some ways. Bid on Zombie markets you'll forget about which will never be resolved anyway.

bought Ṁ50 YES

@10thOfficial do you plan to resolve at close?

sold Ṁ90 NO

Good luck resolving all of these without lots of drama due to tons of semantic ambiguities 🙃

bought Ṁ100 NO

@uair01 the degree of my surprise that this exists reveals my gross miscalibration

@d4hines Tingle is a national treasure.

@JesWolfe are commercial jets themselves "designed to look like a commercial jet" or is this only true if they are other objects designed to masquerade as jets

I bought "belong to a large company" yes thinking most of them are just airplanes, and airplanes belong to large companies. Perhaps everyone else interpreted that differently from me lol.

@BrunoParga top 1000 in the entire world is large.

Think it could be adversaries trying to force the US's hand into revealing what anti-drone tech they have. I also think there's a good chance this happened before (e.g. Gatwick/Heathrow shutdowns in the UK).

In that framing, whipping up hysteria + causing disruption is desirable and part of the playbook

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy