Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if President Trump imposes tariffs of 500% or higher on goods from India before February 1, 2026. Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the Trump administration, statements from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, or confirmed reporting from major financial news outlets (Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC). The tariff rate must be explicitly stated as 500% or greater. If Trump announces tariffs below 500%, or if no tariffs are imposed by the deadline, the market resolves NO.

Background

As of January 2026, Trump has returned to the presidency. Tariff policy has been a central focus of his administration, with various tariff proposals and implementations affecting multiple trading partners. India is a significant trading partner for the United States, with bilateral trade in goods and services exceeding $150 billion annually.

Considerations

A 500% tariff would be extraordinarily high by modern standards and would represent an extreme escalation in trade policy. For context, most U.S. tariffs range from 0-25%, with even aggressive tariff actions typically in the 10-50% range. Such a rate would likely trigger significant international response and potential retaliatory measures.