Resolves as YES if Wales, or a successor political entity consisting substantially of the territory of Wales, is formally admitted to the United States as a U.S. state with an effective date before January 1st 2045.
Resolution will be based on official legal recognition by the United States, such as an Act of Congress admitting Wales as a state, and the admission must have legally taken effect before the deadline.
Resolves as NO if Wales has not become a U.S. state before January 1st 2045, including if it only becomes a U.S. territory, protectorate, commonwealth, associated state, military-administered region, or otherwise falls under U.S. influence without full U.S. statehood.
If the entire United Kingdom, Great Britain, or another larger entity containing Wales is admitted as a single U.S. state, this market resolves YES only if Wales is included in that state at the time of admission.
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@AlanTennant It's enormously more likely, although perhaps still very unlikely, that Wales simply succeeds from the UK, and is its own entirely separate state. Under that situation the rest of the UK would still protect it militarily. It already has its own parliament and own independent body of law, it's very much its own separate country as is.
@AlanTennant that sounds more like an Ireland situation. Eg. if Ireland is attacked today by someone, NATO countries would support Ireland but wouldn't join the war. They wouldn't "protect Ireland". Same situation as Ukraine
@AlanTennant (unless of course Wales becomes independent of the UK but joins NATO, but then it's not really "the rest of the UK protects Wales", it's "Wales is a member of the NATO alliance")
@AlanTennant Ireland case is interesting because they can invoke article 42(7). But the language of that article is pretty non-binding. EU countries are much less likely to send troops to defend a neutral EU member than a non-neutral one. If Wales seceded from the UK then assuming they don't instantly join the EU, the only thing that could protect them would be either instant NATO membership or a separate mutual defence treaty. Assuming no instant NATO then the rest of the UK would without a doubt use a security pact as a bargaining chip in any secession negotiations.
@AlanTennant closest historical examples are Malta and Cyprus becoming independent of the UK. Neither of which became NATO members. So following that pattern, Wales would not become an instant NATO member.