Will AI pass Video Turing Test by 2030?
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Will we have AI that behaves like a human in a video meeting settings?
Resolves to YES if a credible organisation made a match in which a human try to distinguish between another human and AI deepfake he talks to in an interactive video call that lasts more than 3 minutes, and they show an average person is incapable of doing so.
Resolves to NO otherwise.
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Related market: https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-pass-the-rube-goldberg-turi
Related in that it's about AI video generation capability as a leading indicator for AGI.
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