MANIFOLD
Where will I pay state taxes in 2026?
2
Ṁ1kṀ262
2027
6%
Arizona
47%
California
6%
Nevada
6%
New York
6%
Pennsylvania
6%
Texas
6%
Washington
17%
Other

I've lived in the San Francisco Bay Area since graduating college in 2018. Currently my only source of income is trading on Kalshi.

Last year in 5 months of trading I made $40k, and in the first three months of this year I've once again made $40k. If trends continue it seems prudent for me to move to a jurisdiction with lower income tax than California (at least 9.3% on all income above $70k).


Arguments for various states:

California - I currently live here despite having no great reason to. (My first job out of college was in Mountain View but I haven't worked there in quite some time.) I really like the weather.

Arizona, Nevada, Texas, Washington - These are all states with no income tax, though I have no particular ties to any of them. I hear rent is cheap in Austin.
New York - I'm from upstate New York originally. My parents live there and I have a few friends from childhood still kicking around my home town.

Pennsylvania - Low (3%) income tax and this is where my two adorable toddler nephews live.

Other - There are a few other states with no income tax, and many with low taxes. Sorry to any Tennessee babes reading but I doubt I will be moving there, despite your very attractive tax laws.

Market will resolve to 100% for the state I lived in longest for tax purposes. If I pay equally in multiple states I'll resolve each of them to 100% / N.

You are of course encouraged to point out good jurisdictions for me to move to after buying the corresponding shares.

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