Resolution criteria
The 98th Academy Awards will take place Sunday, March 15, 2026, at the Dolby Theatre and will be televised live on ABC. The market resolves YES if One Battle After Another wins the Best Picture award at the ceremony. Resolution will be determined by the official Academy Awards announcement on March 15, 2026. Check the official Oscars website at https://www.oscars.org/ for the results.
Background
One Battle After Another is a 2025 American black comedy action thriller film written, co-produced, and directed by Paul Thomas Anderson. It is loosely based and inspired by the 1990 novel Vineland by Thomas Pynchon. The film stars Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, Benicio del Toro, Regina Hall, Teyana Taylor, and Chase Infiniti. At the 31st Critics' Choice Awards, it won three awards, including Best Picture and Best Director for Anderson. It is also nominated for nine awards at the 83rd Golden Globe Awards, receiving the most nominations of any film that year.
Considerations
The film is leading the Best Picture race, and it is not particularly close. If there is any film capable of challenging it, it would be its studio sibling, Ryan Coogler's Sinners. With much of the season still ahead, and guild awards yet to be decided, Sinners could emerge as this year's spoiler, racking up a handful of key wins along the way, but it would be unlikely. Sinners is currently projected to land 15 Oscar nominations — a total that would eclipse the Academy's all-time record held by All About Eve, Titanic and La La Land, though record-breaking nomination counts do not guarantee Best Picture wins.
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