Is Eliezer Yudkowsky a doomer? | Manifold

Is Eliezer Yudkowsky a doomer?

97

resolved Jan 1

Yes, a doomer

No, not a doomer

I've never heard of this person

Is Eliezer Yudkowsky a member of the Rationalist "doomer" subculture?

This poll is purely for calibration purposes, to verify the notability criteria for this market:

/singer/3-doomers-wanting-bans-on-open-sour

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At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Will I gain any significant insight from reading Eliezer Yudkowsky's new book?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky get fully blaked before 2027?

Will I significantly deconvert Eliezer Yudkowsky from Bayesianism by the end of 2025?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky ever win a Nobel Prize?

If Eliezer Yudkowsky dies, will he die of "old age"-related causes?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be found to have committed fraud before 2030?

Eliezer Yudkowsky p(Doom) stock

Related questions

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Will I gain any significant insight from reading Eliezer Yudkowsky's new book?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky get fully blaked before 2027?

Will I significantly deconvert Eliezer Yudkowsky from Bayesianism by the end of 2025?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky ever win a Nobel Prize?

If Eliezer Yudkowsky dies, will he die of "old age"-related causes?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be found to have committed fraud before 2030?

Eliezer Yudkowsky p(Doom) stock

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