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MANIFOLD
Will US government action cause a non-Anthropic company to restrict availability of a model in 2026?
5
Ṁ100Ṁ239
Dec 31
20%
chance

Apparent prior restraint doesn't count; the model must be available to some set of users and then have reduced availability. The reduced availability must be on-surface-appearance-obviously due to US government action.

Exception: Ceasing to support any services in some country (e.g. OpenAI removing a country from https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/supported-countries) does NOT count.

Market context
OpenAI
US Gov't AI Policy
AI Governance & Policy
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