how many B30A / Blackwell GPUs will China purchase by EOY 2026
4
Ṁ5kṀ3kDec 31
426,681 GPUs
expected1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
35%
<10000
26%
10,000 - 99,999
18%
100,000 - 333,333
11%
333,334 - 999,999
9%
1,000,000+
This will resolve somewhat subjectively to my best guess.
I may resolve PROB if precise numbers aren't knowable.
I won't trade after setting initial probabilities
Measured starting from Dec 1, 2025
I will include estimates of smuggled chips (with a moderately high bar for evidence and estimates).
If other superior blackwell models are exported (e.g. B300), I will also count the number of B30A equivalents (B300 ~= 2x B30A). RTX6000D will not count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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