MANIFOLD
Will robots be able to load a dishwasher in the next five years?
62
Ṁ1kṀ9.8k
2028
88%
chance

Market context
AI
Robotics
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will 500K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2031?
70% chance
Will a robot do my laundry before 2034?
57% chance
Will robots become our primary household chefs by the year 2035?
13% chance
By 2030, will dishwashers be considered as safe and effective as washing dishes by hand?
45% chance
Will I be able to purchase a robot that folds my laundry for me by the end of 2030?
81% chance
Will a robot be able to change a diaper with no mess or fuss in a domestic setting by April of 2028?
10% chance
Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?
63% chance
When will robots start making food in restaurants?
By 2030, Humanoid Robots can Fold laundry as well and as fast as the median human clothing store employee.
68% chance
Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?
51% chance
Sort by:

Not to my satisfaction. >;-)

bought Ṁ20 YES

https://youtu.be/XpBWxLg-3bI?si=72g5SCylq_ljuiBI

We are getting there

My profits 😭

Accidentally left a limit order too large, forgot to cancel it, got No. (I think the market was created because I wanted to make a Yes bet at 7% with someone at Manifest.)

@aok was it you I made the bet with? Alas, I lost most of my profits :(

bought Ṁ100 NO

@ms It was, yep! I still am bearish on this.

@aok why bearish? I think Figure would already be able to load a dishwasher if it just tried

bought Ṁ100 YES

We'll definitely see a robot loading a dishwasher before the end of this year.

@BairAiushin

Oops, my limit order for No at 50% was too large

Dishwasher unloading shown in the video (teleoperated though)

predictedYES

https://twitter.com/zipengfu/status/1742602881390477771?t=NgBkguLtcWtRwuG0AHi7Mw&s=19

Some robots? Any dishwasher?

@gigab0nus all robots, my dishwasher. :)

predictedYES

@gigab0nus Some robot, some normal dishwasher, messy kitchen

@ms Any particular success rate? What if someone tries 100 times, it succeeds once, and releases that video?

People are also trading

Will 500K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2031?
+3% 1d70% chance
Will a robot do my laundry before 2034?
57% chance
Will robots become our primary household chefs by the year 2035?
13% chance
By 2030, will dishwashers be considered as safe and effective as washing dishes by hand?
45% chance
Will I be able to purchase a robot that folds my laundry for me by the end of 2030?
81% chance
Will a robot be able to change a diaper with no mess or fuss in a domestic setting by April of 2028?
10% chance
Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?
63% chance
When will robots start making food in restaurants?
By 2030, Humanoid Robots can Fold laundry as well and as fast as the median human clothing store employee.
68% chance
Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?
51% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy