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Which Nov 2026 California ballot propositions will pass?
20
Ṁ1.4kṀ1.3k
in 3 hours
82%
02 (Increases State's Rainy Day Fund)
82%
03 (Extends High-Income Tax for Schools & Health)
80%
01 (Bonds for Housing Affordability Programs)
70%
41 (Limits New State Taxes; Special Tax Audits)
67%
42 (Bans New State Personal Property Taxes)
62%
37 (Loans for Middle-Income Homebuyers)
54%
38 (Bonds for Immunology Research)
50%
45 (Modifies Environmental Review for Certain Projects)
45%
04 (Repeals Ban on Public Campaign Financing)
43%
05 (Changes Statewide Recall Process)
41%
43 (Limits Voters' Ability to Raise Local Revenue)
38%
40 (One-Time Tax on Billionaires)
18%
44 (Clinics Must Spend 90% on Program Services)
12%
39 (Requires Government ID to Vote)

Listed every State Proposition for California for the upcoming Nov 2026 midterm. Market resolves before election day because I care about knowing the market's view on ballot outcomes before election day.

Each proposition will end in either a YES or NO vote according to its rules (ie I'm not sure if certain propositions require a super majority vs a simple majority to pass etc).

Props 40, 41, 42, 43 are interconnected and have generated a lot of buzz. I'm the most interested in these four measures.

## Oct 31, 2026 Update
Because of those four propositions being interconnected, I will determine in isolation whether or not each one passes - ie even if 42 or 42 get more Yes votes and make 40 void BUT 40 on its own passes, I'll resolve 40 as a Yes/Pass even though it became negated.

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