By which year will renewable sources first supply 50% of US electricity?
By which year will renewable sources first supply 50% of US electricity?
10
1kṀ3572060
14%
Before 2030
23%
2030-2034
26%
2035-2039
22%
2040-2049
7%
2050-2054
5%
2055-2059
5%
2060 or later
This will resolve based on data from the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy (or the best equivalent source if not available), as currently reported here. The most recent available figure is 22.52% in 2022.
Clarification for pedants: this will resolve based only on present/future data. Presenting evidence that, actually, most electricity was supplied by hydropower in 1882 will not cause a "before 2030" resolution.
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FWIW EIA projects only 44% renewable by 2050 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=51698. This seems pessimistic to me and discounts the possibility of a much faster solar+battery takeoff.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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