Will there be generally available consumer wearables that perform multiple continuous blood tests by 2050?
Will there be generally available consumer wearables that perform multiple continuous blood tests by 2050?
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This market will resolve to Yes if:
There exist devices that are generally available (as in, no prescription required and within the price point of a expensive smartwatch) and allow measuring multiple factors we normally require a blood test for. Essentially, continuous glucose monitoring on steroids.
Such device wouldn't need to be actually running blood tests, as long as the measurements had been proven to be accurate.
Please note, glucose monitoring systems from today don't suffice as they only measure glucose.
For some context : https://news.stanford.edu/2020/12/21/new-blood-test-device-monitors-blood-chemistry-continually/
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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