Will the US pass a federal law with binding safety requirements for frontier AI models before the end of 2027?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ12027
50%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if, by December 31, 2027, a US federal law is signed that imposes binding requirements (testing, reporting, licensing or liability) specifically on developers of frontier or general-purpose AI models. Executive orders, agency guidance, state laws and laws that only fund research or create advisory bodies do not count.
Background: in September 2026 I asked an AI for its ten-year forecast, best case and worst case. Its 2027 worst-case list included "Hearings are held, nothing passes; lobbying money beats public concern." I am making a market for each checkable point so the forecast can be scored. The full forecast is free: The Forecast: 2027 to 2036, best case and worst case
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will the US pass a federal AI law before Dec 31, 2026?
53% chance
Will the United States pass federal legislation regulating AI in 2026?
22% chance
Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?
80% chance
🏛️ Will US Congress pass a law that substantially preempts state AI regulation before January 1, 2027? 🏛️
5% chance
[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
20% chance
Will a country ban advanced AI systems before 2027?
12% chance
Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027
14% chance
Will the US require a license to develop frontier AI models by 2028?
41% chance
Will the US implement information security requirements for frontier AI models by 2028?
88% chance
Will the US implement testing and evaluation requirements for frontier AI models by 2028?
89% chance