Will Porter Square subway station in Boston install an air purifier to clean up its horrible air pollution by 2026?
3
90Ṁ112027
42%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will MBTA trains on the Boston red line finally have PM2.5 levels lower than 10 ug/m^3 (like BART trains) by EOY 2027?
55% chance
Will the Boston silver line from airport ever stop being free by 2035
48% chance
Will average PM2.5 levels of Boston be higher in 2024 than 2023?
73% chance
Will the 19th Oakland Bart station inside reduce its avg pm2.5 levels to below 13 by eoy2028
50% chance
Will PM2.5 levels of NYC in 2025 be higher than those in 2022?
30% chance
SF Air Quality Significantly improves in 2024
30% chance
Will PM2.5 levels of Toronto in 2025 be higher than those of 2023?
37% chance
Will air quality in Los Angeles improve by 2037?
87% chance
Will the updated EPA PM2.5 standards in 2024 be repealed by 2028
50% chance
Will smog be a thing of the past in 2123?
81% chance