MANIFOLD
Will any major LLM (like phind/mixtral) contain the entirety of @zvi's blog (https://thezvi.wordpress.com) by EOY 2025?
1
Ṁ95Ṁ10
Jan 1
56%
chance
Market context
LLMs
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

How are you going to test it? It's likely that the blog is in training data, but unlikely that a model will reproduce it verbatim.

@ProjectVictory Can it locate specific posts/content from at least 3 of his blog entries, at least one of them being non-recent/ancient content on his blog?

What does "locate" mean? Meaning it returns the URL when prompted?

People are also trading

Will LLMs Daydream by EOY 2026?
17% chance
Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?
45% chance
Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?
90% chance
Will YouTube Comments make it into a major LLM by EOY 2027?
62% chance
Will "when will LLMs become human-level bloggers?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will we have a popular LLM fine-tuned on people's personal texts by June 1, 2026?
47% chance
Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2028?
75% chance
Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2029?
87% chance
Will "How Much Are LLMs Actually Boosting Real-Worl..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will I write an academic paper using an LLM by 2030?
65% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy