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Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?

Will prompting of generalist models be the dominant method of interaction with LLMs on 1 January 2028?

LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?

Will the best LLM in 2027 have <500 billion parameters?

At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?

Will the best LLM in 2027 have <250 billion parameters?

Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?

Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?

Will an LLM be able to solve the Self-Referential Aptitude Test before 2027?

Will the best LLM in 2026 have <500 billion parameters?