Google I/O 2026 Prop Bets!
12
Ṁ675Ṁ426May 18
91%
A "Gemini 3.2" model or higher announced
87%
Time between Sundar's first word until he says 'AI' is under 120 seconds
86%
Someone compares Gemini performance to ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, or Perplexity (direct or indirect)
80%
Demis Hassabis appears on the main keynote stage
80%
Sundar wears a quarter-zip pullover (or other non-button-down) on stage
66%
Sundar says "AI" >20 times in his first speech
66%
The name "Pixel 10a" said aloud
60%
The word 'magical' is used 3+ times during the main keynote
58%
Time between Sundar's first word until he says 'AI' is under 60 seconds
50%
Consumer Android XR glasses shown with a confirmed shipping/availability date
50%
Live robotics demo on the keynote stage
50%
New agentic coding tool announced (Jules update or successor)
50%
Google Maps gets a new generative AI feature (e.g. trip planning, AR overlay)
50%
Live demo during Main Keynote or Developer Keynote has one feature fail to work
50%
Intro video features an A-list celebrity cameo
50%
An AI agent specifically for software development is introduced or updated
50%
Wear OS gets a major new feature announcement
50%
At least one demo prompt involves a banana, golden retriever, or pizza
37%
Mention of an Anthropic / Claude partnership during the keynotes
34%
Aluminium OS officially announced or unveiled
Which of the following will happen during the 2026 Google I/O Developer conference on May 19–20?
Feel free to add your own.
Resolution will be based on what is shown/announced during the I/O 2026 keynotes (main + developer keynote) and the official I/O event blog posts. Indirect comparisons or references count where reasonable — see prior year's market for resolution philosophy.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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