Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if a single, identifiable event directly triggers widespread civil unrest across multiple U.S. states or major metropolitan areas by December 31, 2029. "Mass civil unrest" is defined as sporadic but continued collective physical violence in a context of social or political instability, that may result in deaths, injury and destruction.

The triggering event must be demonstrably causal—not merely coincidental with unrest. Examples of potential triggering events include: assassination of a major political figure, Supreme Court ruling on a contentious issue, disputed election results, major terrorist attack, or significant police incident. The unrest must involve violent demonstrations, property damage, or significant disruption across at least three states or two major metropolitan areas within 30 days of the event.

Resolution will be determined by reporting from major news outlets (AP, Reuters, NPR, major newspapers) documenting the event and subsequent unrest. If unrest occurs without a clear singular trigger, or if multiple unrelated events contribute to unrest, the market resolves NO.

Background

Political violence declined between the 1980s and 2016, but beginning in 2016 there was a resurgence of violence, with 213 incidents of political violence and 39 deaths since 2016. Recent years have seen elevated tensions: June 2025 Los Angeles protests occurred as part of 2025 protests against mass deportation, and nationwide protests in response to the Killing of Renée Good occurred in 2026.

Fertile conditions for widespread violence include increasing mistrust in government, global tensions and conflicts, threats from domestic extremist groups, a rising acceptance of violence as a means of settling political disagreements, hostile nation-actors, and international terror groups that exploit societal instability.

Considerations

The question requires a singular triggering event, which is a high bar. Most historical civil unrest results from accumulated grievances rather than one discrete incident. Additionally, risks from artificial intelligence (AI), deepfakes, rapid mass communications, citizen journalists, influencers amplifying grievances, and inflammatory media reporting could accelerate unrest once triggered, but distinguishing a primary cause from secondary amplification may be ambiguous in real-time reporting.