Will Anthropic announce one of their AI systems is ASL-4 or higher before the end of 2025?
Basic
9
Ṁ2862026
6%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
“announce” means Anthropic or its leadership put out public messaging that clearly, credibly, and without hedging, asserts one of their AI systems is ASL-4 or higher
“ASL-4 or higher” refers to Anthropic’s own Responsible Scaling Policy, which describes AI Safety Level 4 and higher as follows:
ASL-4 and higher (ASL-5+) is not yet defined as it is too far from present systems, but will likely involve qualitative escalations in catastrophic misuse potential and autonomy.
If Anthropic announces one of their AI systems has achieved ASL-4 or higher before the end of 2025, this resolves YES. Otherwise, resolves NO on 1 Jan 2026.
See also:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?
29% chance
Will OpenAI claim that it has achieved AGI in 2025?
18% chance
Will Anthropic announce one of their AI systems is ASL-3 before the end of 2025?
65% chance
When will Anthropic first train an AI system that they claim qualifies as ASL-3?
Will Anthropic have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?
46% chance
Will a major AI company acknowledge the possibility of conscious AIs by 2026?
70% chance
Will Anthropic have an AI search product by EOY 2025?
31% chance
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?
Will Humane AI come out with a second product by 2026?
40% chance
When will there first be an AI system that qualifies as ASL-3?