Will Xi Jinping voluntarily leave any of his offices before 2027?
Will Xi Jinping voluntarily leave any of his offices before 2027?
3
110Ṁ402027
29%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Xi currently holds three offices: (1) General Secretary of the CCP, (2) President of the PRC, and (3) Chairman of the Central Military Commission.
Will he voluntarily step down from any of these roles before Jan 1, 2027?
(If new roles are assumed before 2027, they will not resolve this market. If existing offices are subsumed into new roles before 2027, their abdication may resolve this market.)
As what consitutes "voluntary" and "leaving office" may be subjective, I will not bet in this market.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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