
Will the Russia Ukraine war end up in a stalemate without a formal peace treaty, like Korea?
Will the Russia Ukraine war end up in a stalemate without a formal peace treaty, like Korea?
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Will be extended as needed, if the war is still hot.
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@benjaminIkuta could use Wikipedia as a source to comfirm that:
a) a ceasefire is in place between both nations, and
b) the ceasefire has largely been observed by both sides for a period longer than a year*.
You could also add a caveat in that there should not be any obvious impending military operations from both sides as generally reported.
*Year period is just an arbitrary value, not sure if that's acceptable or not...
@benjaminIkuta @vitamind sounds like the title could be shortened to "Will the Russia Ukraine war end without a formal peace treaty?"
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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