Polymarket is up to 77% Carney. We'll see if it changes in the next 12 hours as reactions to the debate get shared, but currently it looks like Carney was the winner.

Early polling shows a Carney slightly ahead https://abacusdata.ca/2025-federal-election-debate-reaction-flash-poll/

I don't understand why this was trading at 37% but whatever

@bens I should have bought way more YES shares, but I assumed everyone knew something I didn't about polymarket dynamics

@bens the debate is for Carney to lose. He's not that strong of a debater. And polymarket is a bit conservative piled. Still likely this resolves 50/50 imo

This is not looking good for Pierre and the debate hasn't even happened lol. I'm gonna kick myself if it is a 2% random victory.

@HillaryClinton It was probably smart to hedge either way.

@ChadCotty the real reason I bet is because Carney went down in his odds to 73 for a few hours. Probably just noise though.

@bagelfan What happens if the probability changes by more than 1% but less than 2%?

@evan We are using the displayed probability, which is rounded to the nearest integer unless very close to extremes.

There is talk of pushing back the French debate

@jgyou It was pushed forward by two hours, since it was only moved by a little bit I'll keep the same times for comparing the market prices

@traders Carney's price was 74c at noon today

Weird spikes right on the times for checking the relative price change may be ignored if a majority of Manifold users vote to do so on a poll.

LUNGE or NOT A LUNGE?????

April 18th, Noon EST: