For context, see https://outde.xyz/2019-09-09/a-final-stroll-through-the-complexity-zoo-in-phonology and links therein — even IOTSL is very much a stretch, basically based on one-and-a-half phenomena, the vast majority of phenomena are ITSL.

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 5% chance (1 traders, as of Jun 26, 2026).

Will there be found a language whose phonology is provably outside IOTSL level of subregular complexity, by EOY 2030?

Which language families will be widely academically recognized in the field of linguistics, by EOY 2035?

Will Esperanto be dethroned as the most widely spoken conlang by 2030?

28% chance

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

10% chance

Will significant strides be made in cracking dolphin language by 2026?

23% chance

By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]

34% chance

Will a SOTA open-sourced LLM forecasting system make major use of quasilinguistic neural reps (QNRs) before 2027?

19% chance

How many distinct companies will hold the spot for [my favorite language model for >= 1 contiguous month] in 2026?

By what date will encoded reasoning via linguistic drift be demonstrated in a SOTA reasoning model?

Will the consistency of the First Order Theory beyond Higher Order Set Theory be determined by EOY 2050?

50% chance

Will future language models converge on "what Einstein would have thought of Many-Worlds?" before 2036?

46% chance

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