Somewhat more of a speculative market, but something I've been thinking about over the past day. Iranian sources have confirmed that Mojtaba was in the compound and was injured when it was struck by Israel, possibly seriously enough that he required hospitalization (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/11/mojtaba-khamenei-was-hurt-in-strike-that-killed-his-father-irans-cyprus-ambassador-confirms). As far as I am aware no one else is known to have survived the strike, and it seems unlikely Israel would strike their highest priority target in a way that would be likely to leave survivors somewhere on the compound.

Since his election as Supreme Leader, Mojtaba has not been seen or given any statements. The explanation that has been given is that he is in hiding, which is reasonable enough. However one might expect that he would make some kind of statement and appearance to rally his supporters if he was in any condition to do so, even if pre-recorded to avoid giving away clues to his location.

The alternative theory is, he died in the strike along with his other family members, but was chosen as the Supreme Leader to project regime stability and continuity of the Khamenei name. He has a good reason to stay hidden for months or even years, only communicating through trusted intermediaries. And it is an advantage that he was not publicly prominent before being elected, because his intermediaries can claim their own policies as his decrees. A leader who isn't anywhere to be found may be a convenient lightning rod for US and Israeli intelligence trying to locate him, while senior members of the interim council and IRGC exercise real power in his name.

Will resolve YES if reliable sources confirm that Mojtaba died on or before 11 March 2026. If Mojtaba is verified alive on or after this date, resolves NO. For full transparency I believe it is more likely he is alive, but the chance he is dead is not 0%.